The trend of the stock market is up.

The yield curve is inverted.*

The valuation of the stock market is normal.

Sentiment in the stock market is extremely bearish.**

The current state of the stock market is moderately bullish. Now would be a good time to own stocks.

*This inversion is not particularly bearish at this point because the inversion resulted as much from long yields falling as from short yields rising (see section on yields for more info on this). This would be negated if the short end continued to climb well past the long end. For now the short end has pretty much tracked the Fed Funds rate. The curve was also not majorly inverted. I prefer to keep this simple and consistent by just basing the reading on whether it was inverted or not at the close of the week, but this indicator always requires a closer inspection.
**For reference I will call sentiment extremely bearish if it reads extreme at any point in the week, which it did briefly early in the week. Unsurprisingly, after the CPI print came in cooler than expected and the market had an epic two-day rally, sentiment was back solidly in the merely bearish category. The reason for this is that sentiment tends to crescendo at turns, particularly at bottoms, so just having a brief reading is significant in my view. There is always a very high degree of subjectivity in this reading and as mentioned elsewhere, it is the least important of my indicators.

Success tracker ?

4I Portfolio

  Cash Balance Shares of RSP Held Share Value Performance
4I Portfolio $34.75 75 $10,343.25 9.9%

RSP

  Starting Price Closing Price Performance
RSP $130.48 $146.08 12.0%